First Berlin – MPH Health Care AG Research Update (16.09.2020)

First Berlin Equity Research hat ein Research Update zu MPH Health Care AG (ISIN: DE000A0L1H32) veröffentlicht. Analyst Ellis Acklin bestätigt seine BUY-Empfehlung und bestätigt sein Kursziel von EUR 7,50.

Zusammenfassung
Der Halbjahresbericht spiegelt die gemischte Kursentwicklung der drei börsennotierten Kernbeteiligungen wider. Die Aktien von HAEMATO und CR Capital haben sich von den Covid-19-Tiefstständen erholt, aber das JE19-Niveau nicht wieder erreicht, während die Aktien von M1 Kliniken seit der Erholung nach dem Lockdown wieder gesunken sind. Die zugrunde liegende Geschäftsentwicklung bleibt bei allen drei Unternehmen stark. HAEMATO und CR Capital arbeiteten ohne Unterbrechung, während M1 von der starken Nachfrage nach Schönheitsbehandlungen nach dem Lockdown profitiert. Unsere Empfehlung bleibt bei Kaufen mit einem unveränderten Kursziel von €7,50.

First Berlin – MPH Health Care AG Research Update (16/09/2020)

First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on MPH Health Care AG (ISIN: DE000A0L1H32). Analyst Ellis Acklin reiterated his BUY rating and maintained his EUR 7.50 price target.

Abstract
Six month reporting reflects the mixed share price performance of the three core listed holdings. HAEMATO and CR Capital shares have rebounded from covid-19 lows but have not recaptured YE19 levels, while M1 Kliniken shares have drifted lower again since the post-lockdown recovery. Underlying business performance remains strong at all three companies. HAEMATO and CR Capital operated without interruption, while M1 is benefitting from strong post-lockdown beauty treatment demand. Our rating remains Buy with an unchanged €7.5 price target.

First Berlin – Diversified Gas & Oil PLC Research Update (01/09/2020)

First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on Diversified Gas & Oil PLC (ISIN: GB00BYX7JT74). Analyst Simon Scholes reiterated his BUY rating and increased the price target from GBp 130.00 to GBp 150.00.

Abstract
Following the H1 results we have reworked our dividend discount valuation of the DGOC share to reflect both a higher Q2 dividend of USD0.0375 (FBe: USD0.035) than we had forecast, and rising gas futures prices since our end-June initiating coverage study. Based on a futures curve which slopes upward for the remainder of this decade and DGOC's existing hedge portfolio, we expect the natural gas prices realised by the company over the next five years (after the impact of cash-settled derivatives) to be stable in the range USD2.34/mcf to USD2.57/mcf. This compares with our 2020 forecast of USD2.30/mcf. Fully loaded H1/20 cash costs (after operating expenses, capex, well retirement costs and cash interest) were USD1.36/mcf. This indicates a free cashflow margin on sales of at least 42%-47% (economies of scale are likely to push unit costs lower as the company expands) during the next five years. DGOC should thus have plenty of firepower to keep making the regular acquisitions through which it has secured over 95% of its current production since early 2017. DGOC's target is that not less than ca. 40% of adjusted free cashflow, defined as adjusted EBITDA (hedged) less maintenance capex, interest expense and well retirement costs, should be paid out as dividends. On our forecasts the payout ratio on this basis at the current dividend level will be 43% this year and 44% in 2021, and so we think the current dividend is sustainable. The combination of a dividend yield above 10% and strong and stable cash generation reinforces our view that the share is substantially undervalued. Moreover, the current market cap. warrants DGOC's inclusion in the FTSE 250 Index. New index members will be announced after the market close on 2 September with effect from 21 September. Our recommendation is Buy with a price target of GBP1.50 (previously: GBP1.30).

First Berlin – HAEMATO AG Research Update (07/09/2020)

First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on HAEMATO AG (ISIN: DE000A289VV1). Analyst Ellis Acklin reiterated his BUY rating and maintained his EUR 48.00 price target.

Abstract
Six month reporting showed the impact of the improved product roster. H1 revenue and EBITDA were both up some 23%. The topline matched our target but EBIT missed FBe, due mainly to lower than expected ?other operating income' and higher personnel costs. The gross margin saw a strong sequential uptick to 7.8% approaching historically high levels, thanks to the enhanced product mix. After a marked sales slump in H1/19, we believe HAEMATO has turned the corner and is on track to hit FBe 2020 revenue growth of 16%. Our price target stays at €48, and we remain Buy-rated on HAEMATO.

First Berlin – Cyxone AB Research Update (08/09/2020)

First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on Cyxone AB (ISIN: SE0007815428). Analyst Christian Orquera reiterated his BUY rating and maintained his SEK 12.70 price target.

Abstract
Cyxone published H1/20 results which were roughly in line with our expectations. EBIT amounted to SEK -24.4m – in line with our estimate of SEK -23.5m (H1/19: SEK -13.4m). The two main R&D programmes, Rabeximod for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and T20K for multiple sclerosis (MS), are progressing as scheduled. On 10 June, the company filed four patent applications to expand IP protection of the lead drug candidate Rabeximod. To strengthen its drug development expertise, the company hired Christin Arrhenius Bokedal as Head of Development as well as Dr Maarten Kraan and Professor Rikard Holmdahl both as Senior Scientific Advisors. In connection with the recent licensing agreement for the development of a new COVID-19 treatment, Cyxone raised SEK 0.9m from an investor related to the licensors network. Based on unchanged estimates, we reiterate our price target of SEK 12.70 and our Buy rating.

First Berlin – Valneva SE Research Update (10/09/2020)

First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on Valneva SE (ISIN: FR0004056851). Analyst Simon Scholes reiterated his BUY rating and maintained his EUR 7.40 price target.

Abstract
Valneva has announced a new contract for the supply of Ixiaro to the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD). As Valneva flagged in the H1/20 report, the new contract spans three years. The value of the first (base) year of the contract is USD61m. During the succeeding two years the DoD has the option to purchase US76m – USD105m of Ixiaro. The new contract follows a previous Ixiaro contact with the DoD worth USD70m signed in January 2019 which ended in Q2/20. The increased visibility provided by this new longer term contract provides valuable support to Valneva's vaccines business which is currently adversely affected by reduced travel as a consequence of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. On 8 September Valneva also announced the initiation of the phase III trial of its Chikungunya vaccine candidate VLA1553. The initiation of this trial comes ahead of the Q4/20 timing guided for in the H1/20 report. Valneva looks set to generate further positive newsflow between now and the end of the year. This includes finalisation of a full supply agreement between Valneva and the UK government for the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate VLA2001, which is expected to enter clinical trials later this year. The results of the second phase II study of the Lyme Disease vaccine candidate VLA15 are also due over the next few months. Providing, as we expect, that these are positive, an annoucement on finalisation of the phase III strategy for VLA15 should be forthcoming before the end of this year. Our forecasts are unchanged and we maintain our Buy recommendation at an unchanged price target of €7.40.

First Berlin – 2G Energy AG Research Update (14/09/2020)

First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on 2G Energy AG (ISIN: DE000A0HL8N9). Analyst Dr. Karsten von Blumenthal downgraded the stock to REDUCE but increased the price target from EUR 52.00 to EUR 70.00.

Abstract
2G has presented first figures for the first half of the year. As expected, the total output increased by almost 8% to €116m. Although sales and EBIT remained below the previous year's figures and our expectations on delayed final invoices due to the pandemic, we see this only as a timing problem. Despite the pandemic, incoming orders rose sharply by 16% to €95m and the order backlog remains at a high level of almost €160m and ensures full capacity utilisation well into the second quarter of 2021. We believe that the pandemic-related restrictions will not have a major impact on 2G's business development. In the medium term, the progress of the energy transition in Germany and the world will be decisive. We see high sales potential here for 2G's distributed CHP systems that can be operated with natural gas, biogas, and hydrogen. We thus increase our medium-term forecasts. An updated DCF model results in a new price target of €70 (previously: €52). After the strong share price increase in recent months, 2G is now highly valued with a 2021E PER of over 24. We downgrade the stock from Add to Reduce.

First Berlin – ABO Invest AG Research Update (14/09/2020)

First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on ABO Invest AG (ISIN: DE000A1EWXA4). Analyst Dr. Karsten von Blumenthal reiterated his ADD rating and increased the price target from EUR 2.20 to EUR 2.30.

Abstract
ABO Invest presented half-year figures which, thanks to good wind conditions, were well above the previous year's figures and slightly above our estimates. A 15% y/y increase in electricity production led to a 13% increase in sales to €19.5m. The net result of €2.3m more than doubled the prior year figure. A high free cash flow of €16m led to a €5.0m net inflow of funds despite interest and redemption payments and increased cash and cash equivalents to €19.7m. We thus see ABO Invest as well positioned to quickly implement the planned new growth strategy. At an extraordinary general meeting on 8 October, the course will be laid for a new market presence and improved growth opportunities. After the better than expected half-year figures and taking into account the weak summer months of July and August, we have increased our estimates for the full year. An updated DCF model yields a new price target of €2.30 (previously: €2.20). We confirm our Add recommendation.

First Berlin – Diversified Gas & Oil PLC Research Update (01.09.2020)

First Berlin Equity Research hat ein Research Update zu Diversified Gas & Oil PLC (ISIN: GB00BYX7JT74) veröffentlicht. Analyst Simon Scholes bestätigt seine BUY-Empfehlung und erhöht das Kursziel von GBp 130,00 auf GBp 150,00.

Zusammenfassung
Nach den H1-Ergebnissen haben wir unsere Dividend-Discount-Bewertung der DGOC-Aktie überarbeitet, um sowohl eine höhere Dividende im zweiten Quartal von USD0,0375 (FBe: USD0,035) als prognostiziert als auch steigende Gas-Futures-Preise seit unserer Coverageaufnahme Ende Juni widerzuspiegeln. Basierend auf einer Futures-Kurve, die für den Rest dieses Jahrzehnts ansteigt, und dem bestehenden Hedge-Portfolio von DGOC erwarten wir, dass die vom Unternehmen in den nächsten fünf Jahren realisierten Erdgaspreise (nach den Auswirkungen der in bar abgewickelten Derivaten) im Bereich USD2.34/mcf bis USD2.57/mcf stabil bleiben werden. Dies steht im Vergleich zu unserer Prognose für 2020 von USD 2,30/mcf. Die Bargeld-Vollkosten für H1/20 (nach Betriebskosten, Investitionen, Kosten für die Stilllegung von Brunnen und Barzinsen) betrugen USD 1,36/mcf. Dies deutet auf eine Free Cashflow-Umsatzrendite von mindestens 42% bis 47% in den nächsten fünf Jahren hin (Skaleneffekte dürften die Stückkosten im Zuge der Expansion des Unternehmens senken). DGOC sollte daher über genügend Feuerkraft verfügen, um die regelmäßigen Akquisitionen fortzusetzen, durch die es seit Anfang 2017 über 95% ihrer aktuellen Produktion gesichert hat. Das Ziel von DGOC ist, dass nicht weniger als 40% des bereinigten Free Cashflows, definiert als bereinigtes EBITDA (abgesichert) abzüglich Wartungsinvestitionen, Zinsaufwendungen und Kosten für die Stilllegung von Brunnen, als Dividenden ausgezahlt werden sollen. Nach unseren Prognosen wird die Ausschüttungsquote auf dieser Basis auf dem aktuellen Dividendenniveau in diesem Jahr 43% und im Jahr 2021 44% betragen. Daher halten wir die aktuelle Dividende für nachhaltig. Die Kombination aus einer Dividendenrendite von über 10% und einer starken und stabilen Cash-Generierung bestätigt unsere Ansicht, dass die Aktie erheblich unterbewertet ist. Darüber hinaus rechtfertigt die aktuelle Marktkapitalisierung die Aufnahme von DGOC in den FTSE 250 Index. Neue Indexmitglieder werden nach Marktschluss am 2. September mit Wirkung zum 21. September bekannt gegeben. Unsere Empfehlung lautet Kaufen mit einem Kursziel von GBP1,50 (zuvor: GBP1,30).

First Berlin – HAEMATO AG Research Update (07.09.2020)

First Berlin Equity Research hat ein Research Update zu HAEMATO AG (ISIN: DE000A289VV1) veröffentlicht. Analyst Ellis Acklin bestätigt seine BUY-Empfehlung und bestätigt sein Kursziel von EUR 48,00.

Zusammenfassung
Der Sechsmonatsbericht zeigte die Auswirkungen des verbesserten Produktportfolios. Der Umsatz im ersten Halbjahr und das EBITDA stiegen um rund 23%. Die Umsatzerlöse entsprachen unserer Prognose, aber das EBIT verfehlte unsere Schätzung, was hauptsächlich auf niedrigere als erwartete ?sonstige betriebliche Erträge? und höhere Personalkosten zurückzuführen war. Die Bruttomarge verzeichnete sequenziell einen starken Anstieg auf 7,8% und näherte sich dank des verbesserten Produktmixes einem historisch hohen Niveau. Nach einem deutlichen Umsatzrückgang im H1/19 glauben wir, dass HAEMATO über den Berg und auf einem guten Weg ist, ein Umsatzwachstum von 16% (FBe) für 2020 zu erzielen. Unsere Empfehlung bleibt bei Kaufen mit einem Kursziel von €48.