First Berlin Equity Research on 27/04/2023 initiated coverage on exceet Group SCA (APEX) (ISIN: LU0472835155/ Bloomberg: EXC GR). Analyst Dr. Karsten von Blumenthal placed a BUY rating on the stock, with a EUR 9.00 price target.
Following the reverse takeover by exceet Group SCA in January 2023, APEX Group is now a Prime Standard listed provider of complete green hydrogen infrastructure solutions. These consist of an electrolyser, a hydrogen storage facility, a hydrogen fuel cell, or alternatively, an H2 combined heat and power plant, as well as an optional H2 refuelling station. These are controlled by advanced energy management software. APEX pursues an integrated business model that covers the development and construction of these hydrogen infrastructures, plus their ownership and operation. In the long term, APEX aims to become a producer of green hydrogen. As an early mover, the company has established a good competitive position to become a key player in the green hydrogen infrastructure market. Headquartered in Rostock-Laage, APEX has developed and built a grid-connected hydrogen infrastructure as a reference plant with an electrolysis capacity of 2 MW, which can completely supply the industrial park there with hydrogen-based green energy. Currently, three projects with a total capacity of 115 MW are under active development, including a prestigious "Important Project of Common European Interest" (IPCEI), which is more than 80% financed by the state. The 100 MW electrolyser with a pipeline connection will be located on APEX’s premises, has an investment volume of approximately €200m and is scheduled to be commissioned in 2027. APEX will then sell the produced hydrogen (>7,500 t per year) commercially and could thus earn at least €45m p.a. at an assumed H2 price of 6 €/kg. Given the expected very strong market growth and a rapidly filling project pipeline, we assume that APEX will grow rapidly in the next few years. Having generated revenues of about €4m (FBe) last year, we forecast ca. €15m in 2023 and around €50m in 2024. We value the company based on a DCF model and initiate coverage with a €9.00 target price and a Buy recommendation.
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