First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on Valneva SE (ISIN: FR0004056851). Analyst Simon Scholes reiterated his BUY rating and decreased the price target from EUR 8.90 to EUR 8.60.

FY/23 product revenues recovered strongly (+26% to €144.6m) in line with resurgent travel activity. The current cash position is higher than the year-end figure of €126.1m (we estimate ca. €200m) due to the receipt of €95m for the sale of a priority review voucher in early February and we believe Valneva’s cash runway extends into 2025. 2024 product revenue guidance of €150m-€180m incorporates sales growth of 10%+ for the Ixiaro (Japanese encephalitis) and Dukoral (cholera and ETEC) travel vaccines, but suggests a slower ramp in sales of the chikungunya vaccine, Ixchiq (approved by the FDA in November 2023), than we had previously modelled. We continue to believe that the market is undervaluing medium and long-term prospects for both Ixchiq and the Lyme disease vaccine candidate, VLA15 (launch scheduled for 2027). However, we have lowered our 2024 and 2025 sales forecasts for Ixchiq and now see fair value for the Valneva share at €8.60 (previously: €8.90). We maintain our Buy recommendation.