First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on Valneva SE (ISIN: FR0004056851). Analyst Simon Scholes reiterated his BUY rating and maintained his EUR 8.90 price target.
Both Q2/23 revenues and adjusted EBITDA were above our and consensus forecasts and management has reiterated full-year product revenue guidance of €130-€150m which implies that the previous pre-pandemic high of €129.5m (2019) will be beaten. The share price has fallen below €6.00 on fears that interest rates will remain elevated for longer than the market had previously hoped. Valneva’s VLA1553 will be the first chikungunya vaccine to launch (estimated value of the chikungunya vaccine market: USD500m by 2032), if, as we expect, it receives FDA approval by the end of November. VLA1553’s data (time to onset of immunity, duration of antibody resistance) compares favourably with that of the closest competing chikungunya vaccine candidate, Bavarian Nordic’s CHIKV VLP, which is not scheduled to launch until 2025. We think the approval of VLA1553 will trigger a rally in the stock, which will gather pace in early 2024 as the market begins to focus on the prospects for an eventual decline in interest rates. We maintain our Buy recommendation and price target of €8.90.