First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on Cardiol Therapeutics Inc. (ISIN: CA14161Y2006). Analyst Christian Orquera reiterated his BUY rating and decreased the price target from USD 7.50 to USD 7.40.

Abstract
Cardiol Therapeutics achieved MAVERIC’s original 110-patient enrolment target ahead of its end-of-September guidance. Following a blinded review that identified fewer pericarditis recurrences than anticipated, the trial’s Steering Committee has recommended expanding enrolment to up to 150 patients to generate sufficient recurrence events and preserve the planned statistical power of the primary efficacy analysis. We view the lower-than-expected recurrence rate as encouraging, particularly given the high relapse rates reported following rilonacept withdrawal. CardiolRx-mediated recurrence suppression represents a credible explanation for the lower pooled event rate, considering the efficacy signal observed in the Phase II MAvERIC-Pilot study and management’s statement that it is unaware of changes in routine clinical practice that would explain the finding. However, as the study remains blinded, no treatment-specific conclusion can yet be drawn, while an unexpectedly low placebo recurrence rate could also be a possible explanation for the lower pooled event rate. We view the enrolment expansion as a proactive response that reduces the risk of an insufficient number of recurrence events compromising the trial’s ability to demonstrate a genuine treatment benefit. The expansion moves the expected topline readout from Q1/27 to mid-2027, but existing capital is expected to support operations into Q1/28, giving Cardiol the financial capacity to complete the expanded pivotal assessment without a funding shortfall before the readout. In our view, the modest timeline extension is a reasonable trade-off for a more robust pivotal efficacy assessment, particularly given that MAVERIC represents the company’s most important clinical milestone. Mainly reflecting the longer development timeline and dilution from the recently exercised warrants, we lower our price target slightly to USD7.40 (previous: USD7.50) and maintain our Buy rating (upside: 374%).