First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on Northwest Biotherapeutics Inc. (ISIN: US66737P6007). Analyst Christian Orquera reiterated his BUY rating and maintained his USD 1.00 price target.

Abstract
Northwest Biotherapeutics presented new analyses of its Phase 3 study of DCVax-L, its autologous dendritic cell vaccine for glioblastoma (GBM), at the 2026 British Neuro-Oncology Society (BNOS) Annual Meeting. The analyses, conducted by independent statisticians, applied Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) to individual patient data (IPD) from three external randomised controlled trials in newly diagnosed GBM (CORE, CENTRIC and AVAglio). Both are well-established statistical methods that improve the comparability of treatment and external control populations, allowing a more reliable estimate of treatment effect. The headline finding was that the originally reported survival benefit of 2.8 months was likely underestimated. Whereas the original Phase 3 analysis showed a median overall survival (OS) benefit of 2.8 months, the new patient-level analyses consistently estimate a benefit of 3.4-6.3 months across all PSM analyses and 3.4-4.3 months across all IPW analyses, with all results remaining statistically significant. For comparison, temozolomide, the standard of care in GBM for more than two decades, was approved on the basis of a 2.5-month OS benefit. In our view, three aspects make these findings particularly relevant. First, the analyses were pre-specified in the original Statistical Analysis Plan rather than performed post hoc. Second, the results are highly consistent across three independent external Phase 3 datasets and two complementary statistical methodologies. Third, sensitivity analyses indicate that an unmeasured prognostic factor would need to be implausibly strong to fully explain away the observed survival benefit, further supporting the robustness of the findings. In our view, the new data materially strengthen the evidentiary package supporting Northwest’s ongoing UK Marketing Authorisation Application (MAA), particularly in light of the MHRA’s updated guidance recognising external control arms in rare and life-threatening diseases, ahead of the expected MHRA decision later this year. We therefore reiterate our Buy recommendation and USD 1.00 price target (Upside: >460%).