First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on Valneva SE (ISIN: FR0004056851). Analyst Simon Scholes reiterated his BUY rating and increased the price target from EUR 7.70 to EUR 8.10.

Abstract
Q1/25 product revenues of €48.6m (Q1/24: €32.4m) jumped 51.2% due largely to the absence of supply constraints which hampered sales of Ixiaro and third-party products in the prior year quarter. An improved gross margin and tight cost control lowered the operating cash outflow to €-8.1m (Q1/24: €-28.4m). For the full year management is guiding towards an operating cash outflow of under €30m (FY/24: €67.2m). The end Q1/25 cash position was €153m, which in April was topped up by €14.2m in proceeds from an issue to the U.S. healthcare investor, Novo Holdings A/S. Management indicates that the cash runway extends until expected first commercial sales of the Lyme disease vaccine candidate, VLA15, in 2027. We think VLA15 will make Valneva profitable. We also expect commercialisation of VLA15 to trigger aggregate milestone payments of USD143m from partner Pfizer in 2027. Additionally, Valneva also stands to receive USD100m in commercial milestones based on cumulative VLA15 sales thresholds, and royalties of between 14% and 22%. No vaccine is currently available to prevent Lyme disease in humans. Pfizer and Valneva currently estimate the global market for a Lyme disease vaccine to exceed USD1bn. We see this figure as too conservative. With VLA15 phase 3 trial results expected by the end of this year, we have reworked our forecasts for the vaccine candidate. Based on eligible populations in endemic regions of the U.S. and EU of ca 70m and 162m respectively, an average price per shot of USD72, and penetration of 10%, we arrive at a peak value for the Lyme vaccine market of over USD2bn. An increase in our valuation of VLA15 outweighs a downward revision to our valuation of Valneva’s chikungunya vaccine, IXCHIQ, prompted by slower than expected uptake. We raise our price target to €8.10 (previously: €7.70) and maintain our Buy recommendation. Upside: 182%.