First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on Valneva SE (ISIN: FR0004056851). Analyst Simon Scholes reiterated his BUY rating and decreased the price target from EUR 6.80 to EUR 6.60.

Abstract
Valneva has published preliminary revenue and cash figures for 2025 and also given initial guidance for 2026. 2025 product sales at €157.9m (FBe: €155.1m; 2024: €163.3m) were towards the lower end of the midpoint of guidance (€155m-€170m) but 1.8% above our forecast. 2025 product sales were 2.8% below the prior year figure due to a 43.2% decrease in third party sales to €19.2m (2024: €33.2m). However, at constant exchange rates and excluding third party sales, product sales rose 9.0%. Third party sales fell ahead of the end-2025 expiry of Valneva’s distribution agreement with Bavarian Nordic. The 2025 year-end cash figure of €109.7m was well above our forecast of €86m. This number suggests that the company’s liquidity position will be more comfortable ahead of the expected autumn 2027 Lyme vaccine launch-related transition to positive free cashflow than we had previously modelled. The mid-point of 2026 product sales guidance of €145m-€160m is 3.4% below the 2025 number and 10.9% below our forecast. The wind-down of third-party sales is expected to outweigh further growth in sales of established commercial brands this year. However, management continue to expect the Lyme vaccine candidate (VLA15) phase 3 data before the end of June. Subject to approval, VLA15 will be launched in autumn 2027. We retain our Buy recommendation but lower the price target from €6.80 to €6.60 (upside: 44%) to reflect the reduction in our sales and earnings forecasts for the established commercial brands for 2026 and subsequent years. Our assumptions with regard to Valneva’s most important value driver, VLA15, remain unchanged.