First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on Valneva SE (ISIN: FR0004056851). Analyst Simon Scholes reiterated his BUY rating and increased the price target from EUR 6.30 to EUR 6.80.

Abstract
There are currently no approved human vaccines for Lyme Disease. However, VLA 15 under development by Valneva and its partner Pfizer, has advanced furthest in clinical development, with all vaccinations completed in the pivotal phase 3 trial. The read-out from this trial is due in H1 next year. Subject to positive results, Valneva’s partner Pfizer plans to file for regulatory approval in both Europe and the U.S. in 2026. Following regulatory approval VLA15 would then be launched in autumn 2027 to provide protection for the 2028 tick season. Commercialisation of VLA15 will trigger aggregate milestone payments to Valneva of USD143m from partner Pfizer in 2027. Additionally, Valneva stands to receive USD100m in commercial milestones based on cumulative VLA15 sales thresholds, and royalties of between 14% and 22%. Pfizer and Valneva currently estimate the global market for a Lyme disease vaccine to exceed USD1bn. We continue to see this figure as too conservative. Based on eligible populations in endemic regions of the U.S. and EU of ca 70m and 178m respectively, an average price per shot of USD72, and penetration of 10%, we arrive at a peak value for the Lyme vaccine market of over USD2bn. Valneva/Pfizer’s main competitor in the development of a vaccine for Lyme Disease is Moderna. However, Moderna has paused its Lyme programme in phase 2 to preserve cash for investment in other vaccine candidates. Moderna have indicated that the Lyme programme will not resume until the company generates positive cashflow. Current Bloomberg consensus estimates show Moderna not generating positive EBITDA until 2029. We had previously assumed a Moderna Lyme vaccine launch in 2030. We now assume 2034. An increase in our valuation of VLA15 outweighs downward revisions to our forecasts for Ixiaro and Dukoral due mainly to a change of distributor in Germany and for Ixchiq due to the FDA’s suspension of the vaccine’s product license. We raise our price target to €6.80 (previously: €6.30) and maintain our Buy recommendation (upside: 82%).