First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on SFC Energy AG (ISIN: DE0007568578). Analyst Dr. Karsten von Blumenthal reiterated his BUY rating and decreased the price target from EUR 31.00 to EUR 26.00.

Abstract
Following a weak Q2 performance, and in anticipation of various headwinds, SFC Energy cut 2025 guidance. New revenue guidance is €146.5m to €161m (previously €160.6m to €180.9m). This is 10% – 12% below the previous range. Management now expects 2025 adjusted EBITDA of €13m to €19m (previously €24.7m to €28.2m), which is a reduction of 33% to 47%. The main reasons are macroeconomic uncertainties, tariffs, exchange rate fluctuations, delays in project awards in the defence sector, and a weaker hydrogen business. Preliminary Q2 figures showed slower than expected revenue growth (still 14% y/y) and a significantly lower adjusted EBITDA margin (6.3% versus 11.9% in Q2/24). In a conference call, management said that in particular new business in the United States has fallen short of expectations and that it has implemented cost cutting measures. The profit warning caused a sharp drop in the share price of ca. 20%, but despite this setback we believe that structural growth drivers (reliable & clean off-grid power supply for industrial and public security solutions) remain intact. Once the postponed Indian defence business kicks in next year and the US production site reaches full capacity in 2026, strong growth at high margins looks set to return. We have lowered our forecasts for 2025 and the following years. SFC retains its world market leading position with over 75.000 fuel cells sold. Its direct methanol fuel cell technology remains unrivalled, and the company has a well-established global production and distribution network. An updated DCF model yields a new price target of €26 (previously: €31). The stock remains a clear Buy. Upside: 65%.