First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on Sernova Biotherapeutics Inc. (ISIN: CA81732W1041). Analyst Christian Orquera reiterated his BUY rating and decreased the price target from CAD 1.90 to CAD 1.60.

Abstract
Sernova Biotherapeutics has released positive interim results from its ongoing phase 1/2 trial of the Cell Pouch Bio-hybrid Organ in patients with type 1 diabetes (T1D). The data from 12 patients across Cohorts A and B reconfirm the results seen so far, including successful islet engraftment, insulin production (as evidenced by C-peptide levels), and a notable proportion of patients (8 of 12) achieving insulin independence. Importantly, new patient-reported outcomes indicate significant quality of life improvements, which is of great relevance in this debilitating disease. There is no new information on the additional Cohort B patients using the larger 10-channel Cell Pouch who were to have been recruited a few months ago and will be examined for the potential elimination of top-up via the portal vein. The company reaffirmed plans to initiate the Cohort C trial in H2 2025, provided funding is secured. Sernova also aims to begin clinical trials with Evotec’s iPSC-derived islet-like clusters in 2026, aiming to enhance the consistency and scalability of islet cell therapy. In addition, Sernova announced the formation of a world-class clinical advisory board to support the clinical development of its Cell Pouch to deliver a functional cure for T1D. The involvement of leading experts from top-tier institutions boosts the credibility and development prospects of the T1D programme, potentially accelerating its path to approval and increasing awareness among potential partners and investors. Based on an updated SOTP valuation model, we arrive at a CAD1.60 price target (previously: CAD1.90). The reduction in our price target stems from higher than previously modelled financing-related dilution due to recent share price weakness. However, we see upside potential of >800% and reiterate our Buy rating.