First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on MPH Health Care AG (ISIN: DE000A289V03). Analyst Ellis Acklin reiterated his BUY rating and decreased the price target from EUR 108.00 to EUR 37.00.

Abstract
Audited 2024 reporting showed an overall YoY uptick, while Q1 showed a 7% QoQ decline. However, results were overshadowed by news from CR Energy, which accounted for some 24% of MPH’s listed portfolio at YE24. The investment holding announced on 30 May that it “is set to start insolvency proceedings as it continues talks with investors about the provision of equity or debt to cover working capital needs”. CRE investors hit the bid on the news, erasing ~85% of its market cap, which means MPH’s NAV will take a hit with Q2 reporting. We expect proceedings to take some time and for details to be thin going forward. Our SotP model now prudently assumes a total write-down of CRE’s €63m book value. We still see excellent prospects for M1 Kliniken, which followed up a good 2024 performance with strong Q1 KPIs and think the sharpened focus on the more stable and transparent M1 could trigger a narrowing of the substantial ~65% discount to MPH’s NAV. We now conservatively apply a 50% discount, a level more common to listed holding companies, to the €73 per share value in our model. Our TP thus drops to €37 per share (old: €108). We stick to our Buy-rating (90% upside).