First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on Jaguar Health, Inc. (ISIN: US47010C8055). Analyst Christian Orquera reiterated his BUY rating and decreased the price target from USD 40.00 to USD 35.00.

Abstract
Jaguar Health reported its H1/25 results, which were broadly in line with our estimates. The company posted net revenue of USD 5.2m, driven by modest growth of Mytesi (crofelemer). OPEX rose 10% YoY to USD 21.6m, with the increase driven mainly by higher marketing costs related to the ongoing Gelclair launch. The cash position amounted to USD 2.2m (FY/24: USD 8.0m), underscoring the urgent need to secure funding or finalise a partnership. Jaguar highlighted its rare disease portfolio: (1) early proof-of-concept data from the Abu Dhabi trial, where its novel crofelemer liquid formulation reduced parenteral support needs by up to 27% in a microvillus inclusion disease (MVID) patient and up to 12.5% in a short bowel syndrome (SBS-IF) patient with intestinal failure; a third SBS-IF patient has recently delivered a similar performance. The company plans to present results from the initial intestinal failure patients at the upcoming North American Society for Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition (NASPGHAN) Annual Meeting in November. Following the promising initial MVID results, management also intends to meet the FDA soon to discuss a potential faster regulatory pathway; and (2) following a recent FDA meeting, the company will pursue a supplemental NDA for Mytesi, its delayed-release crofelemer tablet formulation in metastatic breast cancer (mBC). Importantly, the company recently submitted an orphan drug designation application for mBC to the FDA. Although the pipeline looks promising, Jaguar’s success will also depend on securing funding in the near-term. Management reiterated plans to seek licensing partnerships for its portfolio to secure non-dilutive funding. Based on updated dilution estimates following the recent share price decline, our SOTP valuation model yields a price target of USD 35 (previously USD 40). We reiterate our Buy rating (upside potential: >1,600%).