First Berlin Equity Research on 19/05/2025 initiated coverage on Jaguar Health, Inc. (ISIN: US47010C8055/ Bloomberg: JAGX US). Analyst Christian Orquera placed a BUY rating on the stock, with a USD 60.00 price target.

Abstract
Jaguar Health Inc (Jaguar) is a commercial-stage pharmaceutical company leveraging plant-based, sustainably derived medicines to address gastrointestinal (GI) health challenges. Its flagship product, crofelemer (marketed as Mytesi?), has FDA approval for the symptomatic relief of diarrhoea in patients with HIV/AIDS on antiretroviral therapy – a niche indication generating net sales of ~USD10-12m per year. The drug candidate has also completed a phase 3 trial in cancer therapy-related diarrhoea (CTD). Crofelemer did not meet the primary endpoint across all 10 cancer types. However, an analysis presented at the San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium in the US in 2024, showed a statistically significant improvement of 13.4 percentage points in diarrhoea management with crofelemer compared to placebo in the predefined subgroup of patients with breast cancer (BCTD). This subgroup accounted for 62.7% of participating patients. This positive data may be sufficient to allow for supplemental approval in the US for the BCTD subgroup of patients, with or without the need of a confirmatory trial. The candidate is also in clinical development for diarrhoea and reduction in the need for total parenteral nutrition (TPN) support associated with severe rare and orphan diseases such as microvillus inclusion disease (MVID) and short bowel syndrome with intestinal failure (SBS-IF). Initial recent proof-of-concept (POC) data was encouraging and additional results are expected in 2025, which could lead to valuable corporate partnering opportunities, potential early approval (MVID) and a reimbursed early access programme in Europe (SBS-IF). With a robust pipeline targeting diseases with significant unmet needs, Jaguar is well positioned for growth. In response to a recent Letter of Interest to acquire Jaguar, the company initiated defensive measures, signalling their confidence in the business’ future potential. Based on our SOTP valuation model, we initiate coverage of Jaguar with a Buy rating and a price target of USD60.