First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on Diversified Energy PLC (ISIN: GB00BYX7JT74). Analyst Simon Scholes reiterated his BUY rating and increased the price target from GBp 1700.00 to GBp 2600.00.

Abstract
Q3/25 hedged adjusted EBITDA before land sales more than doubled to USD212m (FBe: USD219m; Q3/24: USD104m) as hedged revenue (+80% due mainly to the Maverick acquisition) outpaced recurring opex (+62%). Gains from land sales came in at USD74m (FBe: USD8m; Q3/24: USD11m) compared with USD70m in H1/25 (H1/24: USD7m). DEC’s 2.3m acre undeveloped land position in Texas, New Mexico and Oklahoma suggests that land sales will remain an important part of DEC’s P&L in coming years. Based on the strong Q3/25 performance, management has raised 2025 hedged adjusted EBITDA guidance from USD825m-USD875m to USD900m-USD925m. Leverage fell 20% during 9M/25 and at 2.4x is now within the group’s target range of 2.0x-2.4x for the first time since end-March 2024, and so we expect DEC’s multi-basin roll-up strategy to continue apace. The commodity pricing outlook also looks benign. Futures curves indicate a 2026 average price for DEC’s current commodity basket of 5% above the 2025 level. Later this month DEC will transfer its primary listing to the New York Stock Exchange. The move will optimise the positioning of the DEC share for inclusion in US equity indices and exchange traded funds and in our view will help narrow the valuation discount to larger US peers. We have raised our price target to GBp2,600 (previously: GBp1,700) and maintain our Buy recommendation. Upside: 130%.