First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on Deutsche Rohstoff AG (ISIN: DE000A0XYG76). Analyst Simon Scholes reiterated his BUY rating and increased the price target from EUR 124.00 to EUR 145.00.
Abstract
We have reworked the valuation model published in our most recent note of 9 April to account for a rise in the value of DRAG’s holdings in Almonty as well as higher 2027 drilling CAPEX than we had previously modelled. On 1 April DRAG announced the disposal of 9m shares in Almonty (38% of its holding diluted for bond conversion). The total gain was almost €100m. In the same press, release management announced that the proceeds would be reinvested into a €220m-€230m 2026 drilling programme encompassing ca. 21.8 net wells (2025 CAPEX was €110m). Ca. half these new wells are scheduled to begin production at mid-year and the balance in Q3/Q4. First 2027 guidance issued with the 2026 annual report on 22 April indicates that next year’s CAPEX will also be ample at €150m. We had previously assumed €113m. We expect ca. 15 new wells to come on line next year with timing similar to 2026. DRAG’s balance sheet can easily accommodate this spending. We estimate that net debt/trailing 12 month EBITDA will be only 0.4x by the end of next year. The Almonty share price has risen 12% since our 9 April note. Based on the increase in the value of DRAG’s holdings in Almonty’s debt and equity, as well as higher post-2027 oil and gas production than we previously modelled, we have raised our price target from €124 to €145. We retain our Buy recommendation (upside: 58%).

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