First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on Deutsche Rohstoff AG (ISIN: DE000A0XYG76). Analyst Simon Scholes reiterated his BUY rating and increased the price target from EUR 40.00 to EUR 43.00.

Abstract
DRAG’s annual report, published on 23 April, confirms the preliminary 2024 numbers published on 5 March. The Management Board is proposing a dividend of €2.00, 14% above our forecast and the 2023 dividend (both €1.75). The Supervisory Board has approved a €4m share buyback, the same amount as was bought back in 2024. At the closing share price on 2 May, €4m would enable DRAG to buy back 2.4% of the share capital. In April 2025, the oil price (West Texas Intermediate) averaged USD63.08/bbl compared with USD76.63/bbl in 2024. Management has reduced 2025 planned CAPEX from €100m-€110m to €90m-€100m and is now basing this year’s sales and EBITDA guidance on an oil price of USD60/bbl (previously: USD75/bbl). DRAG’s new 2025 CAPEX guidance and oil price assumption are respectively 9.5% and 20% below the previous numbers. Despite this, the midpoint of DRAG’s new 2025 sales guidance is only 5.3% lower. This is because the 2025 gas price assumption (gas accounted for 24% of 2024 production) is now 50% higher and ca. one third of 2025 oil production is hedged at ca. USD70. In our model, a slight reduction in our valuation of DRAG’s U.S. oil and gas activities is more than compensated for by the 17% rise in the share price of Almonty (in which DRAG has an 11% stake) since our most recent note of 14 April. In our valuation model, the after-tax value of the investment in Almonty now accounts for 19% of our estimate of DRAG’s enterprise value. We maintain our Buy recommendation, but raise the price target to €43 (previously: €40).