First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on Deutsche Rohstoff AG (ISIN: DE000A0XYG76). Analyst Simon Scholes reiterated his BUY rating and increased the price target from EUR 48.00 to EUR 55.00.
Abstract
A pause between the start of production from new wells as well as oil price and USD weakness meant that Q2/25 revenue fell 24% yoy to €43.2m (Q2/24: €56.6m) while EBITDA was down 35% at €27.3m (Q2/24: €42.1m). However, 2025 sales and EBITDA guidance of €170m-€190m and €115m-€135m respectively look to be comfortably achievable. DRAG has already generated over 50% of the upper end (revenue: 54%, EBITDA 52%) of these ranges at the H1/25 stage. Ten new wells will boost H2/25 production significantly, and guidance is based on an average West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price of USD60/bbl. The futures curve currently shows USD66/bbl. Our valuation of DRAG’s oil and gas business is little changed since our most recent note of 2 June. The increase in our price target from €48 to €55 is based mainly on the 28% increase since early June in our after tax valuation of DRAG’s holding in the equity and debt of the tungsten miner Almonty to €94m (equivalent to ca. 30% of current enterprise value). We maintain our Buy recommendation (upside: 42%).
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