First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on ad pepper media International N.V. (ISIN: NL0000238145). Analyst Dr. Karsten von Blumenthal reiterated his BUY rating and maintained his EUR 2.90 price target.

Abstract
ad pepper media (APM) has reported preliminary Q4 figures. EBITDA topped both our forecast (+10%) and the prior year figure (+120%). The EBITDA margin more than doubled from 6.3% in Q4/23 to 13.9%. The main reason for this very good result is the strength of the Webgains segment, which contributed €1.1m to the group EBITDA of €0.8m. APM generated EBITDA of €2.0m in 2024 versus €0.0m in 2023. Based on the preliminary 2024 figures, we have revised our forecasts for 2025E and the following years (lower growth, higher profitability). Despite weak growth forecasts for APM’s main UK and Germany markets, we expect APM to grow 5% y/y in 2025E as well as further EBITDA margin expansion from 9.3% in 2024 to 10.3%. Besides recovering sales and earnings, another share price driver could be the takeover of a majority stake in solute, which operates the price comparison portal ?billiger.de?. APM has owned 26% of solute since 2023, and still plans to take over a majority stake. An updated DCF model yields an unchanged price target of €2.90. We confirm our Buy recommendation.