First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on Valneva SE (ISIN: FR0004056851). Analyst Simon Scholes reiterated his BUY rating and decreased the price target from EUR 4.80 to EUR 4.50.

Abstract
Product sales fell by 37.2% in Q1/26 to €30.9m (Q1/25: €49.2m) due to a cocktail of one-off causes, but also because of an emerging adverse trend in travel vaccine uptake in key markets driven by geopolitical tensions. The latter issue was the key factor in management’s 7% reduction of FY/26 product sales guidance from €145m-€160m to €135m-€150m. Despite the weak Q1/26 numbers and guidance downgrade, the share is currently only 2% below its close on the eve of the report. In our view the main reason for the muted response to the numbers is that the market remains focused on the forthcoming submission of market approval documentation (Biologics License Application or BLA) by Pfizer for the Pfizer/Valneva Lyme disease vaccine candidate, LB6V. As we wrote in our study of 31 March after LB6V narrowly failed to meet the endpoint of its phase 3 trial, we see the probability that the FDA will approve LB6V as better than evens (67%). Analysts’ questions on the post-results call with management focused on the timing of Pfizer’s pre-BLA submission meeting with the FDA (likely later this quarter), and the timing of the BLA submission itself (H2/26). If a BLA submission is accepted for filing, the FDA typically issues a Day 74 letter (i.e., 74 days after receipt of the original BLA submission) to the sponsor– in this case, Pfizer. Valneva expect Pfizer to disclose FDA acceptance of the BLA submission for filing. We maintain our Buy recommendation, but have reduced our price target from €4.80 to €4.50 (upside: 82%) to reflect reductions to our forecasts following the guidance downgrades and the additional dilution entailed by last month’s share issue.