First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on H2APEX Group SCA (ISIN: LU0472835155). Analyst Dr. Karsten von Blumenthal reiterated his BUY rating and decreased the price target from EUR 3.30 to EUR 2.70.

Abstract
The recent introduction of a quota for green hydrogen and its derivatives in the transport sector, passed by the German Bundestag, is very good news for H2APEX. The quota will increase to 10% by 2040 and should then correspond to guaranteed demand for green hydrogen of ca. 600,000 t to 800,000 t, requiring electrolysis capacity of ca. 6 to 8 GW. At the end of 2025, Germany’s electrolysis capacity was less than 200 MW. H2APEX is developing several 100 MW electrolysis projects in Lubmin on the Baltic coast. We consider this location to be probably the best in Germany. We expect that concluding binding hydrogen purchase agreements and financing these large-scale projects will now be significantly easier for H2APEX. We anticipate the final investment decision for the first 100 MW electrolysis project, in which H2APEX has sold a majority stake to Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners, in the second half of the year. The financial market has so far insufficiently recognised the recent substantial improvements in the regulatory environment and their very positive impact on H2APEX. Revenue and the loss for 2025 were roughly in line with our expectations. Revenue guidance for 2026 (€14m- €16m) is below our previous estimate of €20.8m. We have revised our forecasts and the DCF model following the publication of the annual report. The new price target is €2.70 (previously: €3.30). We confirm our Buy recommendation (upside: 166%).