First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on Jaguar Health, Inc. (ISIN: US47010C8055). Analyst Christian Orquera reiterated his BUY rating and decreased the price target from USD 35.00 to USD 7.50.

Abstract
Jaguar Health has entered into a U.S. licensing agreement with Future Pak for Mytesi (indicated for non-infectious diarrhoea in adult HIV/AIDS patients) and Canalevia-CA1 (indicated for chemotherapy-induced diarrhoea in dogs), securing USD 18m in upfront non-dilutive cash and up to USD 20m in additional milestone and other payments. Beyond the immediate liquidity uplift, the transaction substantially de-risks Jaguar by transferring US commercial execution and the associated operating cost base for Mytesi to a partner. The transaction materially simplifies Jaguar’s operating model and positions it for a structurally lower OPEX profile going forward. Management can now focus resources on advancing crofelemer in its core and highly attractive rare intestinal failure indications (MVID and SBS-IF), where clinical and regulatory momentum is building. The strategic refocus is underpinned by encouraging data presented at NASPGHAN on 8 November, where crofelemer reduced life-sustaining total parenteral support (TPS) by 12.5–37% across the first three paediatric intestinal failure patients (one MVID, two SBS-IF). Regulatory engagement has advanced in parallel, with submission of an amended FDA protocol to support a potential Breakthrough Therapy Designation for MVID, initial EMA discussions on approval in very small patient populations, and two U.S. expanded access programmes underway. Overall, the Future Pak agreement materially improves visibility of near-term liquidity and reduces dilution risk. Reflecting updated assumptions, including higher dilution following the balance sheet clean-up and the sharp share price decline, our SOTP valuation yields a revised price target of USD 7.50 (previously USD 35). We confirm our Buy rating (upside potential: >1,000%).