First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on Deutsche Rohstoff AG (ISIN: DE000A0XYG76). Analyst Simon Scholes reiterated his BUY rating and increased the price target from EUR 63.00 to EUR 68.00.

Abstract
The after tax value of DRAG’s holdings in Almonty’s shares (8.1% stake), convertibles and debt has risen by €54m (€11.3 per share) from €133m at the time of our most recent study of 19 November 2025 to €187m now. The increase has been driven by a 44% rise in Almonty’s share price from CAD8.40 to CAD12.09. Almonty currently accounts for 52% of DRAG’s EV (19 November: 36%). However, at €45.15 the DRAG share price is 1% below the 19 November level of €45.60. DRAG’s management expects 2025 EBITDA to come in at the upper end of the guidance range of €115m – €135m given in the annual report last April. During the first nine months of 2025, oil, gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs) respectively accounted for 86%, 8% and 6% of revenues. Since 19 November, the average level of the 2026 oil futures curve has fallen by 1.2% to USD58.89/bbl (average level in 2025: USD64.87/bbl). Meanwhile, the corresponding value for the five year period 2026 – 2030 has fallen 1.0% to USD59.94/bbl. DRAG’s current EV is €360m. Stripping out the value of the Almonty holdings gives a figure of €173m–1.5x our 2026 EBITDA forecast. Even if we assume that the Almonty holdings are disposed of at a 15% discount to current market value, this multiple would still be only 1.7x. Furthermore, DRAG is modestly leveraged. Net debt/2026E EBITDA is 1.2x. Based on a scenario under which the equity-related components of the Almonty holdings are sold at a 15% discount to market value (we previously assumed no discount), we raise our price target from €63 to €68 and maintain our Buy recommendation (upside: 51%).