First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on Valneva SE (ISIN: FR0004056851). Analyst Simon Scholes reiterated his BUY rating and decreased the price target from EUR 8.10 to EUR 6.30.

Abstract
The FDA has suspended the license for Valneva’s chikungunya vaccine, IXCHIQ, for all age groups (presumably permanently), citing four new serious adverse events (SAEs) consistent with chikungunya-like illness. In May, following reports of SAEs, mainly in elderly people with several underlying medical conditions, both the European Medicines Agency (EMA) and the FDA paused the use of IXCHIQ in this age group. The agencies lifted these restrictions in July and August respectively after noting that IXCHIQ is contraindicated in individuals with a weakened immune system due to disease or immunosuppressive treatments. In our view, the rally in Valneva’s share price from early July to 22 August (+113%) was based in large part on lifting of restrictions on IXCHIQ and the expectations of substantial orders for the vaccine to address the outbreak of chikungunya currently affecting parts of Africa, South East Asia, France and Italy. The EMA has so far not made any statement on the additional SAEs, but the FDA suspension may cause hesitancy in ordering IXCHIQ outside the U.S. and boost the market share of the competing chikungunya vaccine, Bavarian Nordic’s VIMKUNYA. However, prospects for Valneva’s Lyme disease vaccine candidate, VLA15, remain intact. The VLA15 phase 3 trial is set to read out either late this year or in early 2026. We expect the annual value of the Lyme vaccine market to peak at over USD2bn. Subject to positive phase 3 data and regulatory approval, Pfizer plans to launch VLA15 in autumn 2027. We expect commercialisation of VLA15 to trigger aggregate milestone payments to Valneva of USD143m from partner Pfizer in 2027. Additionally, Valneva also stands to receive USD100m in commercial milestones based on cumulative VLA15 sales thresholds, and royalties of between 14% and 22%. No vaccine is currently available to prevent Lyme disease in humans. We maintain our Buy recommendation but have reduced the price target to €6.30 (previously: €8.10) to reflect downward revisions to our IXCHIQ sales forecasts (upside: 60%).