First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on Valneva SE (ISIN: FR0004056851). Analyst Simon Scholes reiterated his BUY rating and maintained his EUR 8.10 price target.

Abstract
Q2/25 revenue of €48.4m was 4.5% above consensus and EBITDA of €-5.5m was €10m above the market’s expectation. Meanwhile, operating cash burn fell sharply to €2.8m (Q2/24: €37.8m) due to better profitability and the completion in Q2 last year of Valneva’s contributions to the Lyme phase 3 trial currently being conducted by Pfizer. FY/25 guidance for product sales, revenues and R&D expense is unchanged and Valneva continues to target a >50% reduction in operational cash burn to <€30m (FY/24: €67m). In recent weeks the EMA and FDA both lifted temporary restrictions on vaccinating the elderly with Valneva’s chikungunya vaccine, IXCHIQ. Following this news and the good Q2/25 results, we believe investors are now focusing on likely positive near-term newsflow from IXCHIQ and Valneva’s Lyme disease vaccine candidate, VLA15. A large outbreak of chikungunya is currently spreading from three Indian Ocean islands (Réunion, Mayotte, Mauritius) to Africa. Parts of South East Asia, France and Italy are also experiencing outbreaks. During the analysts’ call following the Q2/25 results management indicated that Valneva is not supply constrained and has sufficient material to address potential response strategies. Meanwhile the VLA15 phase 3 trial is set to read out either late this year or in early 2026. As we wrote in our study of 21 May, we expect the annual value of the Lyme vaccine market to peak at over USD2bn. Subject to positive phase 3 data and regulatory approval, Pfizer plans to launch VLA15 in autumn 2027. We expect commercialisation of VLA15 to trigger aggregate milestone payments to Valneva of USD143m from partner Pfizer in 2027. Additionally, Valneva also stands to receive USD100m in commercial milestones based on cumulative VLA15 sales thresholds, and royalties of between 14% and 22%. No vaccine is currently available to prevent Lyme disease in humans. We maintain our Buy recommendation at an unchanged price target of €8.10. Upside: 60%.