First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on Verve Group SE (ISIN: SE0018538068). Analyst Ellis Acklin reiterated his BUY rating and decreased the price target from EUR 5.80 to EUR 4.80.
Abstract
Headline Q2 KPIs were up YoY but weaker than prior quarters. Management had already signalled on the Q1 earnings call that the June quarter would be burdened by planned platform unification measures to consolidate all in-app marketplace activities into a single technology stack. These upgrades were completed on time, but subsequent problems in revving the Supply Side Platform (SSP) back up to full tilt bled into Q3 causing revenue loss during the first six weeks of the September quarter. This, alongside Fx headwinds, is the primary culprit behind the reduced guidance, which now calls for sales ranging from €485m to €515m and AEBITDA of €125m to €140m (old: €530m to €565m; €155m to €175m respectively). The updated guidance again features a wide range to account for US economic uncertainty. We regard the downgrade as more of a hiccup than a structural problem and stay Buy-rated on Verve. Our TP moves down to €4.8 (old: €5.8) after adjusting FBe to the lower end of the revised outlook (upside: 167%)
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