First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on H2APEX Group SCA (ISIN: LU0472835155). Analyst Dr. Karsten von Blumenthal reiterated his BUY rating and decreased the price target from EUR 8.00 to EUR 3.70.

Abstract
H2APEX has published its annual report and Q1 figures. In 2024, the company almost doubled revenue to just under €30m, but the operating loss increased to €-25.6m after €-22.2m in the previous year. Sales were mainly generated in the project business. Due to a lack of new orders for the construction of hydrogen infrastructure, H2APEX is guiding towards 2025 revenue of only €6m to €8m. Delays in the final investment decisions for many hydrogen infrastructure projects are the main reason for this. Lower revenue was already visible in the 80% y/y decline in Q1 to €2.1m. Following the acquisition of HH2E’s hydrogen project in Lubmin in Q1, H2APEX now has two projects at this site at the Baltic Sea, which is ideally suited for the production of green hydrogen. The development, financing and construction of these two projects will form the core of the company’s strategy over the next few years. In the medium and long term, H2APEX plans to position itself as a producer of green hydrogen and to generate the majority of its sales and earnings in this area. In order to remain solvent despite the expected cash outflows in the current year and beyond, H2APEX has concluded a loan agreement for €20m with its shareholder Active Ownership and has also received a letter of comfort from an Atlan Group investor for a further €15m. In addition, H2APEX is planning a capital increase in summer 2025 with targeted gross proceeds of €30m. The capital raise is expected to include the conversion of the above-mentioned loan. We have significantly lowered our forecasts for 2025E and the following years to reflect the weaker project business and the delays in storage production. From 2029E onwards, we expect earnings from the large new hydrogen production sites. An updated DCF model yields a new price target of €3.70 (previously: €8.00). We confirm our Buy recommendation. Upside: >90%.