First Berlin – Valneva SE Research Update (17/01/2019)

First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on Valneva SE (ISIN: FR0004056851). Analyst Simon Scholes reiterated his BUY rating and increased the price target from EUR 5.40 to EUR 5.50.

Valneva has announced an updated contract for its Japanese encephalitis vaccine, Ixiaro, with the U.S. Department of Defense. The contract is for one year and worth up to USD70m of which USD59m is guaranteed. This represents a significant increase on the November 2017 one-year Ixiaro contract with the Department of Defense which was for USD39.6m of which the guaranteed component was USD28.2m. Meanwhile, Valneva has confirmed that it expects 2018 product sales to be between €100m and €105m, thereby meeting previous guidance that product sales would exceed €100m. Total 2018 revenues are now expected to come in at €110-€115m. Previous guidance was for a range of €110-120m. Initial guidance for 2019 is for product sales of €115m to €125m while other revenues are expected to remain at similar levels to 2018. Total 2019 revenues are expected in the range €125m to €135m. We are leaving our 2018 forecasts unchanged but have made small upward adjustments to our forecasts for 2019 and subsequent years. We now see fair value for the Valneva share at €5.50 (previously: €5.40) and maintain our Buy recommendation.