First Berlin – Pharming Group NV Research Update (12/03/2019)

First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on Pharming Group NV (ISIN: NL0010391025). Analyst Simon Scholes reiterated his BUY rating and decreased the price target from EUR 2.00 to EUR 1.80.

Pharming's preliminary 2018 revenue number (+50.8% to €135.1m) was close to our expectation of €136.3m. Increasing competitive pressures from Haegarda and Takhzyro in the prophylactic setting and the availability of one or more generic versions of Shire's Firazyr in the acute setting from mid-2019 suggest that revenue growth will be lower this year. However, Ruconest's superior efficacy vs. Firazyr (the best-selling product for hereditary angioedema treatment) as demonstrated by the results of a head-to-head trial in December, the lower cost of treatment using Ruconest vs. Haegarda and Takhzyro and the rapidly expanding market for treatment of breakthrough attacks suffered by prophylaxis patients, all suggest that Ruconest sales will continue to grow. Following the 2018 preliminary results and conference call, our 2019 and 2020 sales forecasts are €158.0m and €184.2m respectively (previously €164.7m and €202.9m respectively). We also now see the start of the phase I/II trial of PGN004 in Pompe disease in H1/20 rather than in H1/19. However, we continue to assume first revenues in Pompe disease in late 2023. We have reduced our price target in line with our lower forecasts and now see fair value at €1.80 (previously: €2.00). We maintain our Buy recommendation.