First Berlin – Pharming Group NV Research Update (07/12/2017)

First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on Pharming Group NV (ISIN: NL0010391025). Analyst Simon Scholes reiterated his BUY rating and increased the price target from EUR 1.50 to EUR 1.70.

Several factors have conjoined to produce accelerating sales growth and a jump in the Pharming share price of over 260% since June. First, the sales force built up during H1/17 following the acquisition of full US Ruconest commercialisation rights in late 2016 reached full effectiveness during the third quarter. Second, an article in The Lancet highlighting Ruconests excellent phase II results in hereditary angioedema (HAE) prophylaxis was published a few weeks before the onset of a shortage of Shire's Cinryze - the market leader in this indication. Then, in September, Pharming announced plans to present an SBLA (Supplemental Biologics License Application) for Ruconest to the FDA for review with a view to expanding the drug's indication in HAE from acute attacks to prophylaxis. The SBLA, which was submitted last week, strengthens our confidence that Ruconest will be approved for HAE prophylaxis without a phase III trial and that first revenues in this indication will be generated in 2019. Q3/17 was a breakthrough quarter for Pharming. Revenue of €26.1m was 69% above Q1/17 and 72% above Q2/17 while EBIT at €8.5m was more than double the H1/17 figure of €4.2m. Management guidance for Q4/17 is for a "significant increase" in revenue relative to Q3/17 due in part to the Cinryze shortage. However, even assuming an end to the Cinryze shortage in 2018, we model 52.9% revenue growth in 2018 vs. 2017 based on Ruconest's newly raised profile on the US market, and its low side effect burden relative to competitors. We have raised our 2018 sales and EBIT forecasts by 52% and 130% respectively on our last study of 14 September and now see fair value for the stock at €1.70 (previously €1.50). We maintain our Buy recommendation.