First Berlin – Almonty Industries Inc. Research Update (21/01/2019)

First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on Almonty Industries Inc. (ISIN: CA0203981034). Analyst Simon Scholes reiterated his BUY rating and decreased the price target from CAD 1.50 to CAD 1.25.

2017/18 revenues and EBITDA from mining operations were respectively 12.1% and 18.3% below our expectations due to lower demand and tungsten price weakness during the final quarter of Almonty's financial year (30 September year-end) and also because shipments worth CAD2-3m were not converted into sales when they did nor reach the customer in time. However, we gather from talking to management that due diligence by the banks looking at financing the Sangdong mine is nearing completion. The driving force behind the Sangdong deal is the concern of major downstream tungsten products manufacturer, Global Tungsten & Powders Corp., to ensure long term security of primary tungsten supply. China, which accounts for 80% of worldwide primary tungsten production, is reducing exports of the upstream commodity, tungsten concentrate (Almonty's product). We expect the development of Sangdong, which is one of the largest resources in the world at 25.9m MTU WO3 in situ, and whose average grade of 0.49% is twice the average of western/Chinese mines, to be part of the solution to this problem. A ten-year off-take contract signed with GTP in March 2018 stipulates minimum revenue of CAD500m and effectively implies a floor price per MTU of USD183/MTU WO3. The spot price is currently USD207, down from a recent peak of USD273 reached in calendar Q2 2018. Sangdong is scheduled to begin production in 2020 subject to financing. We have reduced our price target from CAD1.50 to CAD 1.25 to reflect our lowered near term forecasts but maintain our Buy recommendation.